With Ukrainian forces stalled on the battlefield, and major aid packages for Kyiv blocked by Hungary in the EU and by Republican policymakers in the United States, the Western alliance in support of Ukraine appears increasingly weak and divided.
Several scholars and policymakers have assessed this scenario—and reached the conclusion that a pivot to a defensive strategy could eventually bring Putin to the negotiating table.
According to that line of thought, a new approach focused on securing territories that Ukraine already controls would consolidate Western support and eventually demonstrate to Russia that it cannot outlast Ukraine’s war effort.
Such a reassessment reveals an uncomfortable truth: namely, that Ukraine and the West are on an unsustainable trajectory.
According to Röttgen Germany has changed profoundly in the past 22 months. But measured against the challenge, it has not changed enough. At stake are no less than peace and freedom in Europe and with it the future of the European project. If Ukraine does not succeed in pushing back Russia and if Putin is even just partially successful with his aggression, this would have dramatic and decades long consequences for the whole of Europe.
"We would be divided again, a border of military confrontation would run across Europe and the sovereignty of countries like Moldova, Baltics and Georgia would be endangered. The confidence of the Balts, the Central and Eastern Europeans in the EU and above all in its two largest member states Germany and France would be severely damaged in a core area, that of security", he says.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive appears to have stalled, just as wet and cold weather brings to a close the second fighting season in Kyiv’s effort to reverse Russian aggression. At the same time, These circumstances necessitate a comprehensive reappraisal of the current strategy that Ukraine and its partners are pursuing.
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